While Bangladesh processes the shock of four deaths and brutal attacks on National Citizen Party (NCP) leaders in Gopalganj, most of the public outrage is focused on condemning the violence. But beneath the grief and anger lies a more urgent, uncomfortable question: What happens to Bangladesh if the Awami League is allowed to contest the next election?
On July 16th, the National Citizen’s Party (NCP) had a program arranged in Gopalganj, in continuation of their July Jatra program, in which they are visiting every district in Bangladesh. Visiting the nucleus of the fascist Awami League didn’t go smoothly, as the leaders’ convoy was attacked by the recently ousted partymen. Before NCP leaders could even arrive, party loyalists had already attacked their venue, destroyed chairs and dismantling the stage. Though the program proceeded, the real violence came later—gunfire erupted from Awami League cadres, leaving four dead and many wounded. Throughout all the chaos, the law enforcers stayed silent most of the time, only making moves during the last hours, while the party loyalists still possessed illegal firearms.
The significance of this assault runs deeper than most realize. NCP, despite being a relatively new political party, holds major importance on a national scale, which is also reflected in the discussions of the National Consensus Commission’s meetings. So, the fascist party didn’t just target some random young politicians; rather, they attacked national-level actors with the intention to kill.
Contrary to some thought, the attack took place not from rogue local thugs but from Sheikha Hasina herself. In the Jugantor report on July 18th, it showed that the orders directly came from Delhi, where Hasina is staying. It is reported that she instructed, “Make sure none of them leaves alive.” This perfectly depicts the collective mindset of the party men who rigged elections for a decade. In their eyes, there are no human rights for their rivals. They aren’t satisfied with dismantling the program but rather killing it entirely. Allowing such barbarians to participate in the election will have disastrous effects on the entire country.
Muscle power is a significant factor in elections. Polling agents and voting booths’ safety and autonomy are a must for a free, fair, and credible election. If the iconic “Boat” symbol is allowed on the ballot papers, then the party loyalists will inevitably opt for illiberal tactics to ensure their win, just like they did in Gopalganj. Opposition polling agents will be threatened, and voting booths will be seized by the thugs. Allowing them to operate will also encourage and boost their energy. Since the party head already wanted to assassinate the young leaders, used state mechanics to hang opposition leaders in 2013, tried to kill Tarek Zia (allegedly via Subrata Bain), and jailed the opposition leader Khaleda Zia, it isn’t unrealistic that they’d try to cause anarchy on this scale in the next election. We might see assassination attempts or suchlike crimes against the Anti-Awami League bloc.
Political parties will read the situation accordingly before the election date is even announced. They will be cautious about this, especially after the Gopalganj incident. Since trust in law enforcers has radically declined, especially after their institutional failure in this attack, the other parties that will contest the elections will be forced to build more muscle power in the streets. If they can beat the BAL against the polling agents and secure the polling booth—potentially for themselves as well—they’ll gain leverage in the elections. The approval rating of BAL is still deemed low, so physically confronting them will also make a good populist stunt, earning votes for the winner. This will likely lead to violent clashes between BAL and other parties’ weeks before the election. If the law enforcers are still silent like they are now, the political unrest will be severe.
We have to keep in mind that BAL still possesses illegal firearms. Besides, in between the clashes of politicians and thugs, the average voter will be intimidated. After the trauma of fascism in the past 16 years, the masses are still unsure whether to trust the politicians or not. This intimidation will affect the collective psyche, which will devastate voter turnout, undermining the legitimacy of the next government, if one can be formed at all.
Even if a democratic government is formed after the elections, the muscle power of the ruling party will not vanish. The thugs will continue to exist, and they will be kept in the pockets of the politicians to combat opposition parties and, worse, be used for party interests such as extortion. Anarchy on this scale is a major red flag to the foreign investors. If there’s one thing the investors want after profit, it is political stability. Even though FDI is increasing gradually now, the political unrest will be a major factor in affecting future foreign investments.
If the Awami League were allowed to run in Bangladesh’s next election, it would be the same as authorizing the end of democracy. The event in Gopalganj wasn’t an isolated incident; it was a scary preview of what will happen to any political force that dares to stand up to a party ready to kill its opponents in broad daylight. Bangladesh is in a tough spot where it has to decide between the idea of an inclusive democracy and the need to stay alive. There is only one clear option: either don’t let the Awami League run for office or watch as Bangladesh’s democratic exercise ends with gunfire in polling places across the country.
Iftekhar Tamim is an independent columnist.
