Historically, the Indian government has been favourable to the Awami League, the largest and oldest political party of Bangladesh. Whoever was in Delhi’s throne had given AL an upper hand, starting with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and ending with his daughter Sheikh Hasina. The relationship started a long time ago during the Pakistan era when the AL led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was at the forefront of a movement against the discrimination by West Pakistan. The relationship grew over the years, and as Sheikh Hasina assumed leadership of Awami League after her father’s murder in 1975, the bond became closer.
From a regional perspective, Bangladesh and India are dependent on each other in many ways. The geography of South Asia plays a crucial role in determining the scale of the India-Bangladesh relationship. While Bangladesh is surrounded by India on all sides, and needs India’s good grace to maintain regional integrity, India also needs Bangladesh to get access to its landlocked seven states on the north-eastern frontier.
Geopolitically speaking, if India cannot hold its seven northeastern states together, there is a chance that this region will be taken over by Chinese influence, which India fears the most after the Kashmir issue with Pakistan. The only ways to reach the seven sisters, as the northeastern states are commonly known, are either by air or through the narrow Shiliguri Corridor, known as Chicken’s Neck. If India loses the Chicken’s Neck for any reason, communication between the mainland India and the seven sisters will be snapped.
This is why India needs Bangladesh the most. It is connectivity that India has always in their mind whenever they think about Bangladesh. But the ground situation is not easy. A large section of people view India as an enemy, with intentions of inflicting harm and dominance. The idea that India’s mainland will be connected to the seven sisters using Bangladesh’s land, water and rail communication systems is despised by many Bangladeshis, who view this as a violation of the country’s independence and sovereignty.
However, during her time as the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina seemed capable of keeping such negative sentiments in check. She gave everything that India wanted from her, including the permission to use Bangladeshi territory and communication system for reaching the seven sisters. This is the reason why the Indian government has always found a friend in Sheikh Hasina, and the relationship only grew more into a romance since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, and Hasina was sworn in as the Bangladeshi PM for the second consecutive term the same year.
Since 2014, Hasina and Modi have maintained a relationship which is nothing short of a romantic affair. On the one hand, Hasina gave away everything that she had to give, including connectivity and the local consumer market. Besides, she bought electricity from India’s Adani Group at an exorbitant price just to appease Modi.
In reply, Modi gave one thing that Hasina needed the most- unwavering political support. No matter what Hasina did, Modi was always on her side as a never-complaining lover. The more autocratic and fascist Hasina became, the more support she received from the Modi government. From enforced disappearance to massive corruption, each and every crime by Hasina and her party were legalised by Modi’s government.
While entertaining Modi’s demands, Hasina government imposed outright tyranny on the people of Bangladesh. Freedom of speech was curtailed, large scams happened, and people fell victim to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. With the passing of time, Hasina only grew more bloodthirsty, and the Modi government stood by her side obediently during Hasina’s reign of terror.
While entertaining Modi’s demands, Hasina government imposed outright tyranny on the people of Bangladesh. Freedom of speech was curtailed, large scams happened, and people fell victim to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. With the passing of time, Hasina only grew more bloodthirsty, and the Modi government stood by her side obediently during Hasina’s reign of terror.
One reason why India supported the misrule of Hasina is that the other political parties in Bangladesh, including Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, have developed a hatred towards Indian government, specially Modi’s one. These two political parties nurture the negativity among people surrounding the India issue and cash on this sentiment to earn party allegiance.
On the other hand, India does not like BNP-Jamaat clique either, largely due to the instability that ruled Bangladesh while the BNP-Jamaat era. Terrorist attacks and arms supply from Pakistan known as 10-trucks arms haul- these are some examples of what Bangladesh was like while BNP was in power.
The situation has not changed much, as BNP-Jamaat are still propagating negativity accusing India of regional hegemony and source of power politics in the region.
That is why Modi government needs Hasina more than ever, viewing her as a person through whom India can maintain regional stability and fulfill all its interests. Such is India’s loyalty to Hasina that they have given her and some of her party leaders shelter despite the merciless killings committed by them during the July uprising and other crimes over a 15-year period from 2009 to 2024.
Modi can’t trust BNP-Jamaat, as the latter do not trust Modi either. The only trust that Modi can find rests with Hasina, her dearest darling and saviour for the past 15 years. This explains why India has given shelter to Hasina, thinking that a day will come when a leadership vacuum in Bangladesh will bring an opportunity for Hasina’s return, and so the political shelter and everything.
In a recent report, the United Nations have accused Hasina of killing more than a thousand people and students during the July uprising. Still India seems to be firm on their decision to stand beside Hasina, an old time friend and a possible romantic partner to Modi, as the duo cannot think of moving forward without the support of each other.
However, the climate in Bangladesh is not showing any possibility of Hasina’s return. People are still angry, as the desecration of Dhanmondi-32 has showed. The memories of blood spilled during the student movement is still fresh in people’s minds, and they will not forgive Hasina that easily.
If India wants their regional integrity and protection of business interests, they must move away from their old strategy and devise a new one regarding their relationship with Bangladesh.
It seems that Modi is in trouble due to the bad decisions taken by his partner in crime, Sheikh Hasina. Time to let her go, but will Modi understand?
Muhammad A. Bashed is the Operational Editor of Muktipotro
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