Between 2018 and 2020, Bangladeshi authorities provided Myanmar with a list of 800,000 Rohingya for repatriation in six phases. But Myanmar has not taken back a single refugee.
On the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, Thailand on 4 April, Myanmar’s junta government’s Deputy Prime Minister & Union Minister for Foreign Affairs, U Than Swe, told Bangladesh that 180,000 Rohingya are eligible to return.
This announcement has raised questions from diplomatic circles to social media. Rakhine is no more under the control of the military junta. So how will the Rohingya be repatriated?
Due to previous experience, many are concerned that Myanmar may be staging a ‘new play’ instead of taking genuine steps toward Rohingya repatriation.
Nay San Lwin, Co-Founder of Free Rohingya Coalition, a global network of Rohingya activists, spoke to Dhaka-based journalist Abdul Majid Chowdhury about the latest developments regarding Rohingya repatriation and complications between the local power Arakan Army and the Myanmar junta.
1. The military junta has long talked about repatriating the Rohingya, but in reality, it is seen as a delaying tactic in the face of international pressure. It has now told Bangladesh authorities to finalize the names of 180,000 Rohingya. They are still denied Rohingya’s right to citizenship and their ability to travel to other communities has been severely restricted. Rakhine is largely out of the junta’s control now. What are the key takeaways from the junta government’s final announcement of 180,000 Rohingya at this moment?
The junta never had any genuine intention of taking back the Rohingya. The processes they showcased over the past few years were primarily for show—to seem cooperative to the international community. Recently, the junta claimed that 180,000 individuals have been verified and are eligible to return, but they provided no details on how this would occur.
Since the junta lacks control over the territory, these statements are unlikely to lead to any meaningful action. Everything depends on which group truly holds control over the territory area.
This can also be interpreted as a message to Bangladesh: “We are Okay for the return of the Rohingya. If you wish to send the Rohingya back, please consult the Arakan Army (AA).”
2. The report says the Arakan Army has rejected Myanmar’s demand to verify the repatriation of 180,000 Rohingya, insisting that the junta has no authority in Rakhine and calling on Bangladesh to engage with local authorities. What should be the position of the Bangladesh authorities in this regard?
Since the junta does not control the territory, the practical approach is to engage with the Arakan Army (AA), which does. The Bangladesh government has already been in contact with the AA—something that is widely known, even if unofficial.
Now is the time to begin discussions about the return of the Rohingya to their original villages. As Arakan or Rakhine State is still officially part of Myanmar, the junta is unlikely to object—especially since they have already stated that 180,000 individuals have been verified and are eligible to return.
3. In Rakhine as far as now, the Arakan Army has forbidden the use of the term ‘Rohingyas,’ and Rakhine people believe there should be no Rohingyas at all in Rakhine State. and there is a long-standing animosity between the Rakhine people and Rohingyas. By repatriation, if Rohingyas return to Rakhine, will they welcome them?
Regardless of what the Arakan Army (AA) or some Rakhine people may claim about the Rohingya, it does not reflect reality. Arakan is a shared land supported by strong historical evidence. Denying this truth only fosters division. History cannot be erased, and the time has come to confront it honestly. Using armed power to deny this truth will only harm their reputation. All actions against the Rohingya must stop.
Welcoming and including the Rohingya will help rebuild Arakan. Their return cannot be ignored. If it is denied today, it will still have to happen in the future. It is better to solve this issue sooner rather than later.
Welcoming and including the Rohingya will help rebuild Arakan. Their return cannot be ignored. If it is denied today, it will still have to happen in the future. It is better to solve this issue sooner rather than later.
4. AA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The AA and Three Brotherhood Alliance was both promised previously to include all communities in its vision for a future independent of the central government, despite the army’s track record of persecuting Rohingyas, now Arakan Army doing same atrocities on Rohingyas. AA’s leadership have also made controversial statements alluding to the Muslim minority as Bengali migrants. There was a speculation, If Arakan Army can control over military junta in Rakhine, the rights of all ethnic groups, who have lived through years of discrimination and conflicts. Including Rohingyas will be established. Now, that expectation shifted. Why is the Arakan Army moving away from its earlier inclusive stance?
As they gained strength, the Arakan Army (AA) used the Rohingya issue to gain more support. The international community and many of us believed the AA had goodwill toward the Rohingya. But after taking control of the territory, they revealed their true intentions. The abuses against the Rohingya are similar to those committed by the Myanmar military.
However, accountability and reconciliation must go hand in hand. All past actions must be held accountable, and reconciliation must also be worked toward.
5. There is a bigger question, though, over how much the various ethnic insurgent groups are willing to want Rohingya repatriation. What’s your point on that?
I don’t think other ethnic armed resistance groups in different regions will oppose the return of the Rohingya. Since the Rohingya issue is one of the most important in the country, many groups facing questions may welcome it. The Rohingya issue is a concern everywhere.
6. On the Rohingya repatriation issue, what is the latest position of the People’s Defense Force (PDF), National Unity Government (NUG), and other ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)?
The NUG stated in June 2021 that they would welcome the Rohingya. However, they have not made any comments on the recent developments. The PDF and EAOs have also remained silent. Still, I don’t believe they would oppose the return of the Rohingya.
7. Bangladesh Interim Chief Dr. Mohammed Yunus has emphasized that the displaced Rohingya community hopes to return to Myanmar and celebrate next year’s Eid in their homeland, underscoring their deep desire to go back. Given this, what is your perspective on the possibility of their repatriation to Rakhine by Eid in 2026? How do you anticipate this issue evolving in the coming year?
This issue can be resolved quickly if all parties are willing to act. I believe that what Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus said is possible—if the Bangladeshi government acts promptly. Bangladesh has a significant influence on this situation.
The Arakan Army (AA) wants to maintain a strong relationship with Bangladesh for its own survival. If both Bangladesh and the AA agree on the return of the Rohingya, and the agreement reflects the wishes of the Rohingya people, it can move forward. If all terms are settled, it is possible that some Rohingya could return to Arakan before Eid in 2026.
The Arakan Army (AA) wants to maintain a strong relationship with Bangladesh for its own survival. If both Bangladesh and the AA agree on the return of the Rohingya, and the agreement reflects the wishes of the Rohingya people, it can move forward. If all terms are settled, it is possible that some Rohingya could return to Arakan before Eid in 2026.
8. Considering that the Rohingya had become a forgotten crisis. Considering the recent visit by the UN Secretary-General to the Rohingya camps and the ongoing global funding shortages, do you believe these developments will intensify pressure on Myanmar’s junta leadership and the Arakan Army both? Given this situation, Junta & AA Both of these groups think that Rakhine State doesn’t belong to Rohingyas.
While the Rohingya issue has been almost forgotten, the visit of the UN Secretary-General brought it back into the spotlight. His visit helped restore the food allowance cuts for the Rohingya, which is a positive outcome. This move should be credited to Bangladesh’s interim government.
The junta, however, does not feel any real pressure. They continue to ignore the situation by claiming they no longer control the territory. On the other hand, the Arakan Army (AA), which is seeking legitimacy, benefited from the UN Secretary-General’s mention of coordination with them.
Now, the AA has an opportunity to gain more legitimacy—possibly being seen, at least unofficially, as the governing body of Arakan. Continuing to abuse or deny the Rohingya will not help them. They need to understand this. Taking part in resolving the Rohingya issue will support both their goals and their future.
9. Myanmar’s junta government denied almost all allegations of violence against the Rohingya. Even Myanmar’s pre-coup government did not consider the Rohingya to be one of the country’s 135 officially recognized ethnic groups. Now Rakhine is almost controlled by AA. At this point, can we say, Not Myanmar Junta, the fate of the Rohingya in the Arakan Army’s hands? AA’s perspective and policy will ultimately decide it?
Arakan, or Rakhine State, is still a part of Myanmar. While the junta is considered an illegal government by a majority in Myanmar, it has recently gained some international recognition, with support from neighboring countries and Russia.
At the same time, the Arakan Army (AA) controls large parts of the territory and is now seen as a significant power in Arakan. However, that does not mean the future of the Rohingya is entirely in their hands. The situation is unpredictable and can change at any time.
As an ethnic group of Myanmar, especially with deep roots in Arakan, the Rohingya have the right to self-determination. We have suffered decades of oppression and genocide. We may be weak right now, but that doesn’t mean we will always remain weak. Continued denial of our rights will only strengthen our determination to achieve what we deserve.
It is better to solve this problem with our current opportunities rather than allowing it to grow into something even more challenging to manage later.
10. There is a discussion ongoing to allow aid to Rakhine via Bangladesh. As far as ongoing conflicts between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army, the humanitarian situation in Rakhine is worrying. Do you see if such a channel is formally established, repatriation will be hampered permanently?
In Arakan, everyone is suffering—Rohingya, Rakhine, and other minority groups. They all need humanitarian support. I don’t believe that creating a channel to deliver aid through Bangladesh will affect the Rohingya’s right to return.
The Arakan Army (AA) must allow the United Nations to enter the area through Bangladesh. The UN’s presence will significantly support aid distribution and may also help prevent further attacks by the Myanmar military.
The international community should work closely with Bangladesh to support the safe return of the Rohingya to their homeland and to help rebuild Arakan. The Rohingya want to live in peace and dignity, wherever they are right now.
Additionally, if the UN is present in the area, the Rohingya will feel safer. This could encourage Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to consider returning to their homes.
11. AA was accused of forced conscription of Rohingya, forced disappearances, arson attacks on Rohingya communities, and even a drone strike that killed at least 200 Rohingya. Some reports say that many Rohingyas are leaving the camps and going to Myanmar to fight against the Arakan Army on behalf of the junta, so where is the ray of hope for Rohingya repatriation?
The Arakan Army (AA) has followed the same pattern as the Myanmar military in persecuting the Rohingya. Between March and August 2024, they killed at least 2,500 Rohingya and burned down many Rohingya villages. The scale of the abuse is severe—beyond words and goes far beyond crimes against the Rohingya.
At the same time, the Myanmar military has forcibly conscripted Rohingya youth. Some so-called armed groups, claiming to represent the Rohingya, have collaborated with the junta for their own interests. These groups do not represent the Rohingya community.
Despite everything that has happened, accountability and reconciliation must go hand in hand. The Rohingya’s homeland is in Arakan, and they have the right to return. It is better to resolve this issue now rather than delay it further.
12. Rohingya refugees live in fragile shelters, with inadequate security and little accountability in the camp, The dimensions of the response have changed as the months and years pass, If this uncertainty Continuing what’s is the ultimate future of Rohingya Repatriation? Should we forget about the idea that Rohingya repatriation will happen?
The Rohingya’s homeland is in Arakan. We need to focus on their return to this homeland every day. We must continuously seek ways to make it happen, as it is the ultimate goal solution.
In the meantime, Rohingya refugees deserve better living conditions. Instead of relying solely on aid, they should be granted proper refugee rights. Allowing them to work and promoting investment near the camps could enhance Bangladesh’s economy and benefit the host communities as well.
The international community should work closely with Bangladesh to support the safe return of the Rohingya to their homeland and to help rebuild Arakan. The Rohingya want to live in peace and dignity, wherever they are right now.
13. During his visit to Bangladesh, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, ‘It is important to engage the Arakan Army for full respect for the rights of the Rohingya population in Rakhine’. He expressed hope, ‘A necessary dialogue must take place,’ so do you think the AA will respond? If such a discussion takes place, what kind of conditions could the Arakan Army offer?
What the UN Secretary-General said provides some legitimacy and recognition for the Arakan Army (AA). If the AA truly seeks international legitimacy and recognition, they should focus on embracing and welcoming the Rohingya. The UN Secretary-General’s comments were made because of the Rohingya issue, and this should be understood.
Many other ethnic armed groups control territories within Myanmar, but the UN Secretary-General has not endorsed their legitimacy. The AA has gained recognition because of its close connection with the Rohingya in Arakan.
14. Bangladesh wants to become a member of ASEAN. Will Bangladesh be able to play a stronger role on the Rohingya issue if it becomes a member of ASEAN? However, both Myanmar and Bangladesh are members of regional organizations like BIMSTEC, but at the last summit, no one other than Bangladesh raised this issue significantly on the Rohingya issue.
If Bangladesh joins ASEAN, it would enhance the leverage of the ASEAN family within the region. However, this is not the case now. Nonetheless, Bangladesh can still engage with all ASEAN member countries.
Bangladesh has been affected by the Rohingya issue since 1978 and is currently hosting more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees. Bangladesh must continue raising the problem wherever possible.
Most ASEAN countries, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, are sympathetic to the Rohingya cause. Bangladesh should form a coalition with these countries that support the Rohingya and allow them to contribute to resolving the issue.
15. For several days now, the Arkan Army has been holding Bangladeshi ships, fishermen, and boats hostage. Is the Arkan Army trying to send a message to the Bangladesh government through this? What kind of understanding do you think Bangladesh should have with the Arakan Army, outside of the central government of Myanmar, regarding the return of Rohingya to Rakhine?
The Arakan Army (AA) should not adopt the approach of taking hostages. The AA must acknowledge its own weaknesses. Armed power does not resolve all issues; sometimes, it only creates more.
Since the AA has good relations with Bangladesh, it should work towards settling all issues peacefully. Arakan will face significant hardships if Bangladesh closes its doors.
I observe that Bangladesh is very sympathetic to the AA and is concerned about Arakan’s well-being. The AA needs to recognize this. Bangladesh is a sovereign nation, and Arakan is currently under the control of a rebel group. This is the reality, and the situation could worsen if Bangladesh does not support Arakan.
If the AA considers all possible scenarios from every angle, most of the problems can be resolved.
16. Conflicts are escalating in the Middle East. There is a migrant crisis across Europe, Trump’s tariff war in the US. The Russia-Ukraine war is still continuing. Do you think that Rohingya repatriation will be possible in the near future, despite the global crises?
Global crises should not prevent the resolution of the Rohingya crisis. All crises must be addressed sooner or later, and the Rohingya crisis is one of the ongoing challenges. Resolving this issue will reduce the number of problems on the global agenda. Even in times of global hardship, the return of the Rohingya should still be possible. Due to global crises, more than a million Rohingya should not have to continue suffering.
Abdul Majid Chowdhury is a Sub Editor at the international desk of Daily Jugantor. amcshahriaronline@gmail.com
Nay San Lwin is a co-founder of Free Rohingya Coalition.
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