In a recent and telling exchange, US President Donald Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and remarked that Bangladesh would be left “in India’s hands”. While President Trump’s rhetorical style has long been unpredictable and his diplomatic finesse always in question, his latest comments signal a broader recalibration that demands Bangladesh’s careful attention. A retreat of US engagement, compounded by an already hostile and interventionist India, poses serious challenges to Bangladesh’s democratic reforms and sovereign stability.
US disengagement and its global ripple effects
The United States has long wielded its influence not only through its economic and military might but also by shaping international norms as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. A US pivot toward domestic priorities—and its inclination toward transactional policies—signals a potential retreat from championing democracy (at least superficially) abroad.
Already, President Trump’s previous administration has been criticised for overlooking critical issues such as Russian expansionism in Ukraine. As this inward turn accelerates, Bangladesh’s struggle for democratic governance and necessary institutional reforms risks being sidelined, especially given that Washington’s willingness to “turn a blind eye” leaves India with greater permission to meddle in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.
Political alliances: the price of Western affinities
Professor Muhammad Yunus, whose close ties with the US Democratic Party establishment—and notably the Clintons—have bolstered Bangladesh’s diplomatic standing in the past, now finds the Interim Government he leads in a precarious position. President Trump’s vindictive streak against political and ideological adversaries suggests that any visible alignment with figures from the old guard of American liberalism could cost Bangladesh dearly.
In the intricate web of geopolitics, political affinities matter. Professor Muhammad Yunus, whose close ties with the US Democratic Party establishment—and notably the Clintons—have bolstered Bangladesh’s diplomatic standing in the past, now finds the Interim Government he leads in a precarious position. President Trump’s vindictive streak against political and ideological adversaries suggests that any visible alignment with figures from the old guard of American liberalism could cost Bangladesh dearly.
Finding new ways to build alliances with the new administration is key, and the recent meeting with Elon Musk—who is immensely influential in the present administration—to invite Starlink to Bangladesh, was one such creative and strategic move by the interim government.
A reinvented, more assertive Trump administration
It is crucial to understand that the current iteration of the Trump administration is not a mere continuation of 2016-2020; it is a reinvention that is brazen enough to ignore legal and even constitutional mandates. Since taking office, President Trump has demonstrated a willingness to upend established domestic and international norms—from challenging the constitutionally guaranteed birthright citizenship to imposing stiff tariffs on long-term allies and neighbors Mexico and Canada. In this environment, the global signals sent by Washington are unequivocal: the US is no longer interested in anything beyond its short term, and ideologically determined, self-interest.
For Bangladesh, a country striving to maintain its internal stability while enacting deep reforms, the implications are profound. As the era of US active role in multilateral global leadership draws to a close, Bangladesh must recalibrate its foreign policy priorities accordingly.
.India’s established hostility and destabilising tactics
Perhaps most concerning for Bangladesh is the reality that India is already an emboldened and hostile actor since the departure of Sheikh Hasina. Since her exit, New Delhi has deployed every tool at its disposal—ranging from an overt and aggressive media campaign to (assumably) covert intelligence operations—to destabilise Bangladesh’s political landscape.
Indian intelligence agencies, notably RAW, along with a domestic “Godi Media” apparatus, have been active in shaping narratives and fomenting internal dissent. With Trump’s apparent de-prioritisation of Bangladesh, India’s destabilising efforts are likely to accelerate, leaving Bangladesh to fend off external interference with limited international recourse.
Even the specter of military intervention, though remote, is not beyond the realm of possibility should India’s strategic calculations veer towards a more assertive posture. Of course, the strongest deterrent to this is China. Beijing has consistently opposed overt external interference in its sphere of influence and would likely counterbalance any aggressive maneuvers by India.
However, history—such as the disastrous entanglements in Syria—serves as a cautionary tale: the involvement of multiple great powers in a country’s internal affairs can quickly transform a nation into a geopolitical battleground.
Strategic diplomacy and the shadow of misinformation
In the midst of this geopolitical tug-of-war, Bangladesh is attempting to carve out a strategic niche. Proactive diplomatic engagements—such as recent talks with Elon Musk regarding a potential Starlink rollout —offer a glimmer of creative thinking by the IG. Musk’s deep influence and role in the Trump administration, could act as a counterbalance. However, these strategic initiatives are occurring in an environment where misinformation and domestic unrest are rife.
Reports of mob justice and politically motivated media narratives continue to paint Bangladesh as unstable, undermining the country’s credibility on the world stage.
Conclusion: Playing a high-stakes game
The situation for Bangladesh is undeniably precarious. The interplay between a more inward-focused US, an assertive India, and the shadow of China’s counterbalancing interests creates an environment where every decision carries significant consequences. For the current interim government, the challenge is twofold: to maintain internal stability while skillfully navigating an international arena dominated by self-interested power plays. In such a high-stakes game, every diplomatic move, every strategic alliance, and every public statement must be measured with utmost precision.
The future of Bangladesh depends not only on its ability to reform internally but also on its capacity to engage prudently with an increasingly fractious and opportunistic global order.
Rubayat Khan is a social entrepreneur based in Baltimore, USA, and serves as Op-eds editor at Muktipotro.
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